BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

View previous topic View next topic Go down

BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Gala Placidia on Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:04 am

We will certainly see an increase in prices due to poor levels of production in both Italy and Spain http://www.cnbc.com/2015/06/24/worlds-kitchens-brace-for-olive-oil-shock.html
avatar
Gala Placidia
Moderator

Posts : 1820
Join date : 2013-05-20

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Vicino on Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:45 am

avatar
Vicino
Elder

Posts : 514
Join date : 2013-05-25

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Gala Placidia on Tue Aug 11, 2015 8:43 am

Unfortunately, weather conditions and bacteria spread have not improved and this is the time of the year when they know what is going to happen.
avatar
Gala Placidia
Moderator

Posts : 1820
Join date : 2013-05-20

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Admin on Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:35 pm

Not in our area. It looks like a good year.The article is actually talking about last year's crop with a small nod to possible problems in Spain this year.

I don't think prices will be affected at all this year. Last year there were climactic conditions that meant the crop was down 40-70% not just in Italy but pretty much across the Med. That is not the case this year. I suspect there is a combination of scare-mongering, lazy journalism and 'lets use it as an excuse to inflate the price'-ism.

If you read about the bacteria in Puglia there is a lot of misinformation and a good deal of debate about how to deal with it. Some trees never get infected and other recover so we really don't know enough about it at this moment.
avatar
Admin
Admin

Location : Italy
Posts : 697
Join date : 2013-05-16

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Gala Placidia on Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:40 pm

Well, this is what they are saying in Italy and production for 2015 is still going down http://www.repubblica.it/economia/2015/02/10/news/olio_d_oliva_2015_grecia_e_tunisia_sbancano_spagna_e_italia-106998969/
So it looks as if we are going to get more Greek and Tunisian oil....
avatar
Gala Placidia
Moderator

Posts : 1820
Join date : 2013-05-20

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Admin on Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:45 pm

But that article is from February 2015 and they are referring to the 2014 harvest. They wouldn't have a clue about the 2015 harvest in February. We only have an idea now and things can still change.
avatar
Admin
Admin

Location : Italy
Posts : 697
Join date : 2013-05-16

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Flip on Wed Aug 12, 2015 7:53 am

Yes it is last years crop they are referring to, this year in the Lucca area they are expecting a great crop as opposed to last years dismal affair, which THB did not affect the price of Olive Oil significantly at all.
Sloppy Journos at it again ....
Also at this time of year olives are so small and there is a good 4-5 months before harvest, so sheer guess work at the moment.


Last edited by Flip on Wed Aug 12, 2015 7:56 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : addittion)
avatar
Flip
Elder

Location : nr. Bagni Di Lucca. LU
Posts : 796
Join date : 2013-05-25

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Gala Placidia on Wed Aug 12, 2015 12:31 pm

Admin wrote:But that article is from February 2015 and they are referring to the 2014 harvest. They wouldn't have a clue about the 2015 harvest in February. We only have an idea now and things can still change.

Well, not exactly, as they are already giving figures for 2015 and comparing those to 2014. Something is happening as the World Olive Oil Council is already warning about price increases for the new harvest... Italy's olive oil figures also depend on the Spanish production as local production is not sufficient to meet export needs. In any case, we shall see...
avatar
Gala Placidia
Moderator

Posts : 1820
Join date : 2013-05-20

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Flip on Wed Aug 12, 2015 4:48 pm

Yes we shall see, but one has to remember that Forecasting Futures is a Black Art done solely for the purpose of someone making money. A bit of scaremongering never did anyone (well almost) any harm.
avatar
Flip
Elder

Location : nr. Bagni Di Lucca. LU
Posts : 796
Join date : 2013-05-25

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Gala Placidia on Wed Aug 12, 2015 4:55 pm

they are also talking about international and bulk prices. I do not think that the impact will be that big at domestic level. On the other hand, and according to the data offered, Greece and Tunisia may benefit from this and they desperately need some good news Very Happy
avatar
Gala Placidia
Moderator

Posts : 1820
Join date : 2013-05-20

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Admin on Wed Aug 12, 2015 5:27 pm



Last edited by Admin on Thu Aug 13, 2015 3:05 pm; edited 7 times in total (Reason for editing : links gone weird)
avatar
Admin
Admin

Location : Italy
Posts : 697
Join date : 2013-05-16

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Geotherm on Wed Aug 12, 2015 6:01 pm

Links still not working Admin

_________________
www.geotherm.it
avatar
Geotherm
Moderator

Location : Amandola Marche
Posts : 586
Join date : 2013-05-20

http://www.geotherm.it

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Admin on Thu Aug 13, 2015 3:05 pm

I think they should be working now.
avatar
Admin
Admin

Location : Italy
Posts : 697
Join date : 2013-05-16

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Gala Placidia on Fri Aug 14, 2015 2:34 pm

I have been looking at those figures; however, they seem to reflect the production of a specific area ( Imperial, Liguria) and a variety (Taggia). Also, when they talk about foreign production, in particular Spain, they quote prices for "Borjas", which does not exist. There is oil from "Campo de Borja", a limited production area within the Moncayo (Aragon) region, which is small and not representative of the Spanish Oil production, or there is also a large distributor, Borges, which sells medium range olive oil at international level. The latter will possible be similar to those oils mentioned in the other thread. So I am afraid that those statistics do not give us a clear picture...
avatar
Gala Placidia
Moderator

Posts : 1820
Join date : 2013-05-20

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Admin on Fri Aug 14, 2015 3:11 pm

They also give figures for Italy as a whole and also Kalamata from Greece which is the largest oil producing area. I don't know much about the Spanish market so I can't comment on on Borjas.

They are wholesale prices exclusive of VAT.

It is interesting more because it shows that prices did not actually rise much at all in 2014 in Italy and also that for extra-vergin olive, if you are paying under €4 a litre wholesale (retail is obviously a lot higher) for generic Italian EVOO or under €9.35 a litre (again wholesale) for Taggiasca then it is likely to not be what it says it is.

In case you are wodering why Taggiasca is a higher price, this is three-fold. One is that it can only be picked by hand due to the geography of the terrain here (think terraces like the Cinque Terre) and secondly it is only grown in a small geographic region so has limited supply and lastly it is naturally very low in acidity.
avatar
Admin
Admin

Location : Italy
Posts : 697
Join date : 2013-05-16

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Gala Placidia on Fri Aug 14, 2015 4:00 pm

Yes, I do know the Imperia and Taggia areas as we spent some time at Arma di Taggia a few years ago and I know that the production is limited and artisan style. What I question is the ther figures. Certainly, in the case of Imperia, price differences from year to year have been small, but I do not know whether the particular events which have affected other regions or countries have been taken into account. I think that the data provided by the World Council will be more accurate. In any case, we will soon know....
avatar
Gala Placidia
Moderator

Posts : 1820
Join date : 2013-05-20

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Admin on Fri Aug 14, 2015 4:05 pm

The figures for the National prices show the price went up around 50%. In our area between 40% and 70% of last year's harvest was lost depending upon if you are organic or not so it was pretty devastating. I think prices didn't change too much as our prices are high anyway and maybe people aren't that cynical.

These figures are from the Camera di Commercio which gets them from the wholesale market in Taggia for our area and other Camere di Commercio for the rest of Italy and I am sure this is then fed to the World Olive Council so they will be accurate. But you are right - we will see.


Last edited by Admin on Fri Aug 14, 2015 4:07 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : spelling)
avatar
Admin
Admin

Location : Italy
Posts : 697
Join date : 2013-05-16

Back to top Go down

Re: BRACE YOURSELVES FOR OLIVE OIL PRICES

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum